Perspective is more accurate in hindsight. These are some of the key learning points from the “London Letter” by Eric Blair (pen name George Orwell) in October 1944 in which he reviewed his past commentaries to identify his own errors and mistakes.
Predictions are based on a fog of confusion, conflicting information and misinformation (lies). Some analysis is based on initial assumptions which loose credulity over time (e.g. exaggerating the strength of causal connections). The trap is in clinging to an initially declared position (using increasingly selective data). The correct response is to modify your position in response to subsequently learning new facts and live with any embarrassment (including the risk of a slight on your character). The motive to avoid shame compounds the initial error. People hug on to delusions because accepting truth would hurt their pride.
For some, political thought is an excuse to delve into fantasy where facts…
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